A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

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Standard

A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. / Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Davidson, T. A.; Drews, M.; Hamilton, D. P.; Jeppesen, E.; Kjellström, E.; Olesen, J. E.; Sonnenborg, T. O.; Trolle, D.; Willems, P.; Christensen, J. H.

I: Climatic Change, Bind 122, Nr. 1-2, 2014, s. 271-282.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt

Harvard

Refsgaard, JC, Madsen, H, Andréassian, V, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K, Davidson, TA, Drews, M, Hamilton, DP, Jeppesen, E, Kjellström, E, Olesen, JE, Sonnenborg, TO, Trolle, D, Willems, P & Christensen, JH 2014, 'A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts', Climatic Change, bind 122, nr. 1-2, s. 271-282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

APA

Refsgaard, J. C., Madsen, H., Andréassian, V., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Davidson, T. A., Drews, M., Hamilton, D. P., Jeppesen, E., Kjellström, E., Olesen, J. E., Sonnenborg, T. O., Trolle, D., Willems, P., & Christensen, J. H. (2014). A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. Climatic Change, 122(1-2), 271-282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

Vancouver

Refsgaard JC, Madsen H, Andréassian V, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Davidson TA, Drews M o.a. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. Climatic Change. 2014;122(1-2):271-282. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

Author

Refsgaard, J. C. ; Madsen, H. ; Andréassian, V. ; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K. ; Davidson, T. A. ; Drews, M. ; Hamilton, D. P. ; Jeppesen, E. ; Kjellström, E. ; Olesen, J. E. ; Sonnenborg, T. O. ; Trolle, D. ; Willems, P. ; Christensen, J. H. / A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. I: Climatic Change. 2014 ; Bind 122, Nr. 1-2. s. 271-282.

Bibtex

@article{b54247c015254f3db867b9312596705b,
title = "A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts",
abstract = "Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.",
author = "Refsgaard, {J. C.} and H. Madsen and V. Andr{\'e}assian and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen and Davidson, {T. A.} and M. Drews and Hamilton, {D. P.} and E. Jeppesen and E. Kjellstr{\"o}m and Olesen, {J. E.} and Sonnenborg, {T. O.} and D. Trolle and P. Willems and Christensen, {J. H.}",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2",
language = "English",
volume = "122",
pages = "271--282",
journal = "Climatic Change",
issn = "0165-0009",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "1-2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts

AU - Refsgaard, J. C.

AU - Madsen, H.

AU - Andréassian, V.

AU - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.

AU - Davidson, T. A.

AU - Drews, M.

AU - Hamilton, D. P.

AU - Jeppesen, E.

AU - Kjellström, E.

AU - Olesen, J. E.

AU - Sonnenborg, T. O.

AU - Trolle, D.

AU - Willems, P.

AU - Christensen, J. H.

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

AB - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.

U2 - 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:84890554118

VL - 122

SP - 271

EP - 282

JO - Climatic Change

JF - Climatic Change

SN - 0165-0009

IS - 1-2

ER -

ID: 186939666