TY - JOUR

T1 - Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from ENSEMBLES models

AU - Boberg, Fredrik

AU - Berg, Peter

AU - Thejll, Peter

AU - Gutowski, William J.

AU - Christensen, Jens H.

PY - 2010/12/1

Y1 - 2010/12/1

N2 - Probability density functions for daily precipitation data are used as a validation tool comparing station measurements to seven transient regional climate model runs, with a horizontal resolution of 25 km and driven by the SRES A1B scenario forcing, within the ENSEMBLES project. The validation is performed for the control period 1961-1990 for eight predefined European subregions, and a ninth region enclosing all eight subregions, with different climate characteristics. Models that best match the observations are then used for making climate change projections of precipitation distributions during the twenty-first century for each subregion separately. We find, compared to the control period, a distinct decrease in the contribution to the total precipitation for days with moderate precipitation and a distinct increase for days with more intense precipitation. This change in contribution to the total precipitation is found to amplify with time during all of the twenty-first century with an average rate of 1.1% K-1. Furthermore, the crossover point separating the decreasing from the increasing contributions does not show any significant change with time for any specific subregion. These results are a confirmation and a specification of the results from a previous study using the same station measurements but with a regional climate model ensemble within the PRUDENCE project.

AB - Probability density functions for daily precipitation data are used as a validation tool comparing station measurements to seven transient regional climate model runs, with a horizontal resolution of 25 km and driven by the SRES A1B scenario forcing, within the ENSEMBLES project. The validation is performed for the control period 1961-1990 for eight predefined European subregions, and a ninth region enclosing all eight subregions, with different climate characteristics. Models that best match the observations are then used for making climate change projections of precipitation distributions during the twenty-first century for each subregion separately. We find, compared to the control period, a distinct decrease in the contribution to the total precipitation for days with moderate precipitation and a distinct increase for days with more intense precipitation. This change in contribution to the total precipitation is found to amplify with time during all of the twenty-first century with an average rate of 1.1% K-1. Furthermore, the crossover point separating the decreasing from the increasing contributions does not show any significant change with time for any specific subregion. These results are a confirmation and a specification of the results from a previous study using the same station measurements but with a regional climate model ensemble within the PRUDENCE project.

KW - Climate change

KW - Extreme events

KW - Precipitation

KW - Probability density function

KW - Regional climate models

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=78249263461&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

DO - 10.1007/s00382-009-0683-8

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:78249263461

VL - 35

SP - 1509

EP - 1520

JO - Climate Dynamics

JF - Climate Dynamics

SN - 0930-7575

IS - 7

ER -