Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Dokumenter

The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer24124
TidsskriftScientific Reports
Vol/bind11
Udgave nummer1
Antal sider7
ISSN2045-2322
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 16 dec. 2021

Antal downloads er baseret på statistik fra Google Scholar og www.ku.dk


Ingen data tilgængelig

ID: 289233634