Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories

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The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.

Original languageEnglish
Article number24124
JournalScientific Reports
Volume11
Issue number1
Number of pages7
ISSN2045-2322
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 16 Dec 2021

    Research areas

  • DISEASE

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