Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories
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- s41598-021-03126-w
Final published version, 24.7 MB, PDF document
The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 24124 |
Journal | Scientific Reports |
Volume | 11 |
Issue number | 1 |
Number of pages | 7 |
ISSN | 2045-2322 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 16 Dec 2021 |
- DISEASE
Research areas
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