Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

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  • jclid190084

    Final published version, 5.37 MB, PDF document

  • Jonathan Spinoni
  • Paulo Barbosa
  • Edoardo Bucchignani
  • John Cassano
  • Tereza Cavazos
  • Ole B. Christensen
  • Erika Coppola
  • Jason Evans
  • Beate Geyer
  • Filippo Giorgi
  • Panos Hadjinicolaou
  • Daniela Jacob
  • Jack Katzfey
  • Torben Koenigk
  • Rene Laprise
  • Christopher J. Lennard
  • M. Levent Kurnaz
  • Delei Li
  • Marta Llopart
  • Niall McCormick
  • Gustavo Naumann
  • Grigory Nikulin
  • Tugba Ozturk
  • Hans-Juergen Panitz
  • Rosmeri Porfirio da Rocha
  • Burkhardt Rockel
  • Silvina A. Solman
  • Jozef Syktus
  • Fredolin Tangang
  • Claas Teichmann
  • Robert Vautard
  • Juergen V. Vogt
  • Katja Winger
  • George Zittis
  • Alessandro Dosio

Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume33
Issue number9
Pages (from-to)3635-3661
Number of pages27
ISSN0894-8755
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2020

    Research areas

  • CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY, HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS, FOOD SECURITY, CMIP5, TEMPERATURE, MULTIMODEL, SIMULATIONS

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