Evaluation of an ensemble of Arctic regional climate models: Spatiotemporal fields during the SHEBA year

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • A. Rinke
  • K. Dethloff
  • J. J. Cassano
  • Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
  • J. A. Curry
  • P. Du
  • E. Girard
  • J. E. Haugen
  • D. Jacob
  • C. G. Jones
  • M. Køltzow
  • R. Laprise
  • A. H. Lynch
  • S. Pfeifer
  • M. C. Serreze
  • M. J. Shaw
  • M. Tjernström
  • K. Wyser
  • M. Žagar

Simulations of eight different regional climate models (RCMs) have been performed for the period September 1997-September 1998, which coincides with the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project period. Each of the models employed approximately the same domain covering the western Arctic, the same horizontal resolution of 50 km, and the same boundary forcing. The models differ in their vertical resolution as well as in the treatments of dynamics and physical parameterizations. Both the common features and differences of the simulated spatiotemporal patterns of geopotential, temperature, cloud cover, and long-/shortwave downward radiation between the individual model simulations are investigated. With this work, we quantify the scatter among the models and therefore the magnitude of disagreement and unreliability of current Arctic RCM simulations. Even with the relatively constrained experimental design we notice a considerable scatter among the different RCMs. We found the largest across-model scatter in the 2 m temperature over land, in the surface radiation fluxes, and in the cloud cover which implies a reduced confidence level for these variables.

Original languageEnglish
JournalClimate Dynamics
Volume26
Issue number5
Pages (from-to)459-472
Number of pages14
ISSN0930-7575
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2006

ID: 186941837