A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts
Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. / Refsgaard, J. C.; Madsen, H.; Andréassian, V.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Davidson, T. A.; Drews, M.; Hamilton, D. P.; Jeppesen, E.; Kjellström, E.; Olesen, J. E.; Sonnenborg, T. O.; Trolle, D.; Willems, P.; Christensen, J. H.
I: Climatic Change, Bind 122, Nr. 1-2, 2014, s. 271-282.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts
AU - Refsgaard, J. C.
AU - Madsen, H.
AU - Andréassian, V.
AU - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.
AU - Davidson, T. A.
AU - Drews, M.
AU - Hamilton, D. P.
AU - Jeppesen, E.
AU - Kjellström, E.
AU - Olesen, J. E.
AU - Sonnenborg, T. O.
AU - Trolle, D.
AU - Willems, P.
AU - Christensen, J. H.
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
AB - Models used for climate change impact projections are typically not tested for simulation beyond current climate conditions. Since we have no data truly reflecting future conditions, a key challenge in this respect is to rigorously test models using proxies of future conditions. This paper presents a validation framework and guiding principles applicable across earth science disciplines for testing the capability of models to project future climate change and its impacts. Model test schemes comprising split-sample tests, differential split-sample tests and proxy site tests are discussed in relation to their application for projections by use of single models, ensemble modelling and space-time-substitution and in relation to use of different data from historical time series, paleo data and controlled experiments. We recommend that differential-split sample tests should be performed with best available proxy data in order to build further confidence in model projections.
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2
DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0990-2
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:84890554118
VL - 122
SP - 271
EP - 282
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
SN - 0165-0009
IS - 1-2
ER -
ID: 186939666