Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation
Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation. / Eilersen, Andreas; Sneppen, Kim.
I: Scientific Reports, Bind 10, Nr. 1, 18543, 29.10.2020.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Cost-benefit of limited isolation and testing in COVID-19 mitigation
AU - Eilersen, Andreas
AU - Sneppen, Kim
PY - 2020/10/29
Y1 - 2020/10/29
N2 - The international community has been put in an unprecedented situation by the COVID-19 pandemic. Creating models to describe and quantify alternative mitigation strategies becomes increasingly urgent. In this study, we propose an agent-based model of disease transmission in a society divided into closely connected families, workplaces, and social groups. This allows us to discuss mitigation strategies, including targeted quarantine measures. We find that workplace and more diffuse social contacts are roughly equally important to disease spread, and that an effective lockdown must target both. We examine the cost-benefit of replacing a lockdown with tracing and quarantining contacts of the infected. Quarantine can contribute substantially to mitigation, even if it has short duration and is done within households. When reopening society, testing and quarantining is a strategy that is much cheaper in terms of lost workdays than a long lockdown. A targeted quarantine strategy is quite efficient with only 5 days of quarantine, and its effect increases when testing is more widespread.
AB - The international community has been put in an unprecedented situation by the COVID-19 pandemic. Creating models to describe and quantify alternative mitigation strategies becomes increasingly urgent. In this study, we propose an agent-based model of disease transmission in a society divided into closely connected families, workplaces, and social groups. This allows us to discuss mitigation strategies, including targeted quarantine measures. We find that workplace and more diffuse social contacts are roughly equally important to disease spread, and that an effective lockdown must target both. We examine the cost-benefit of replacing a lockdown with tracing and quarantining contacts of the infected. Quarantine can contribute substantially to mitigation, even if it has short duration and is done within households. When reopening society, testing and quarantining is a strategy that is much cheaper in terms of lost workdays than a long lockdown. A targeted quarantine strategy is quite efficient with only 5 days of quarantine, and its effect increases when testing is more widespread.
KW - SPREAD
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-020-75640-2
DO - 10.1038/s41598-020-75640-2
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 33122753
VL - 10
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
SN - 2045-2322
IS - 1
M1 - 18543
ER -
ID: 252038919