Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling
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Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling. / Sloth Madsen, M.; Maule, C. Fox; MacKellar, N.; Olesen, J. E.; Christensen, J. Hesselbjerg.
I: Food Additives and Contaminants - Part A Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment, Bind 29, Nr. 10, 01.10.2012, s. 1502-1513.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling
AU - Sloth Madsen, M.
AU - Maule, C. Fox
AU - MacKellar, N.
AU - Olesen, J. E.
AU - Christensen, J. Hesselbjerg
PY - 2012/10/1
Y1 - 2012/10/1
N2 - Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.
AB - Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.
KW - crop phenology
KW - method validation
KW - mycotoxins
KW - precipitation
KW - relative humidity
KW - temperature
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84866718834&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/19440049.2012.712059
DO - 10.1080/19440049.2012.712059
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 22889171
AN - SCOPUS:84866718834
VL - 29
SP - 1502
EP - 1513
JO - Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A
JF - Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A
SN - 1944-0049
IS - 10
ER -
ID: 186940310