Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories
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Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories. / Kirkegaard, Julius B.; Sneppen, Kim.
I: Scientific Reports, Bind 11, Nr. 1, 24124, 16.12.2021.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories
AU - Kirkegaard, Julius B.
AU - Sneppen, Kim
PY - 2021/12/16
Y1 - 2021/12/16
N2 - The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
AB - The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
KW - DISEASE
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w
DO - 10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 34916534
VL - 11
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
SN - 2045-2322
IS - 1
M1 - 24124
ER -
ID: 289233634