The Timing of Terrorist Attacks: An Optimal Stopping Approach
Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Standard
The Timing of Terrorist Attacks : An Optimal Stopping Approach. / Jensen, Thomas.
In: Research & Politics, 02.2016.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Author
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - The Timing of Terrorist Attacks
T2 - An Optimal Stopping Approach
AU - Jensen, Thomas
PY - 2016/2
Y1 - 2016/2
N2 - I use a simple optimal stopping model to derive policy relevant insights on the timing of one-shot attacks by small autonomous terrorist units or “lone wolf” individuals. A main insight is that an increase in proactive counterterrorism measures can lead to a short term increase in the number of attempted terrorist attacks because it makes it more risky for existing terrorist units to pursue further development of capabilities. This is consistent with the events in London in 2005 where a terrorist attack on 7 July was followed by a similar but unsuccessful attack two weeks later.
AB - I use a simple optimal stopping model to derive policy relevant insights on the timing of one-shot attacks by small autonomous terrorist units or “lone wolf” individuals. A main insight is that an increase in proactive counterterrorism measures can lead to a short term increase in the number of attempted terrorist attacks because it makes it more risky for existing terrorist units to pursue further development of capabilities. This is consistent with the events in London in 2005 where a terrorist attack on 7 July was followed by a similar but unsuccessful attack two weeks later.
KW - Faculty of Social Sciences
KW - Terrorism
KW - timing of attacks
KW - Counterterrorism
KW - formal modeling
KW - optimal stopping
U2 - 10.1177/2053168016631582
DO - 10.1177/2053168016631582
M3 - Journal article
JO - Research and Politics
JF - Research and Politics
SN - 2053-1680
ER -
ID: 153442763