Modern temperatures in central-north Greenland warmest in past millennium
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Modern temperatures in central-north Greenland warmest in past millennium. / Hoerhold, M.; Muench, T.; Weissbach, S.; Kipfstuhl, S.; Freitag, J.; Sasgen, I.; Lohmann, G.; Vinther, B.; Laepple, T.
I: Nature, Bind 613, Nr. 7944, 18.01.2023, s. 503-507.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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T1 - Modern temperatures in central-north Greenland warmest in past millennium
AU - Hoerhold, M.
AU - Muench, T.
AU - Weissbach, S.
AU - Kipfstuhl, S.
AU - Freitag, J.
AU - Sasgen, I.
AU - Lohmann, G.
AU - Vinther, B.
AU - Laepple, T.
PY - 2023/1/18
Y1 - 2023/1/18
N2 - The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point(1). Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming(2), but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions(3-5) are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from ad 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 +/- 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since ad 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.
AB - The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point(1). Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming(2), but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions(3-5) are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from ad 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 +/- 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since ad 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.
KW - ICE-SHEET
KW - CLIMATE VARIABILITY
KW - WATER ISOTOPES
KW - STABLE-ISOTOPES
KW - FIRN
KW - PRECIPITATION
KW - OXYGEN
KW - MELT
KW - RECONSTRUCTIONS
KW - DENSIFICATION
U2 - 10.1038/s41586-022-05517-z
DO - 10.1038/s41586-022-05517-z
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 36653569
VL - 613
SP - 503
EP - 507
JO - Nature
JF - Nature
SN - 0028-0836
IS - 7944
ER -
ID: 346047846