Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation
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Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. / Lohmann, Johannes; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Jochum, Markus; Lucarini, Valerio; Ditlevsen, Peter D.
I: Science Advances, Bind 10, Nr. 12, eadi4253, 22.03.2024.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation
AU - Lohmann, Johannes
AU - Dijkstra, Henk A.
AU - Jochum, Markus
AU - Lucarini, Valerio
AU - Ditlevsen, Peter D.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
PY - 2024/3/22
Y1 - 2024/3/22
N2 - Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.
AB - Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.
U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253
DO - 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 38517955
AN - SCOPUS:85188867295
VL - 10
JO - Science advances
JF - Science advances
SN - 2375-2548
IS - 12
M1 - eadi4253
ER -
ID: 389961308