Exit Polls and Voter Turnout
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Exit Polls and Voter Turnout. / Andersen, Asger Lau; Jensen, Thomas.
Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 2010.Research output: Working paper › Research
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Exit Polls and Voter Turnout
AU - Andersen, Asger Lau
AU - Jensen, Thomas
N1 - JEL Classification: D71, D72, D82
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - We set up a model of elections or referendums with two alternatives to study how voter turnout and election outcomes are affected by the publication of exit polls on election day. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The fact that exit polls influence the incentive to vote before they are even published is sometimes overlooked in the debate on their desirability. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on election outcomes.
AB - We set up a model of elections or referendums with two alternatives to study how voter turnout and election outcomes are affected by the publication of exit polls on election day. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The fact that exit polls influence the incentive to vote before they are even published is sometimes overlooked in the debate on their desirability. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on election outcomes.
KW - Faculty of Social Sciences
KW - elections
KW - exit polls
KW - voter turnout
M3 - Working paper
BT - Exit Polls and Voter Turnout
PB - Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen
ER -
ID: 22359819