TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record

AU - von der Heydt, Anna S.

AU - Ashwin, Peter

AU - Camp, Charles D.

AU - Crucifix, Michel

AU - Dijkstra, Henk A.

AU - Ditlevsen, Peter

AU - Lenton, Timothy M.

PY - 2021/2/1

Y1 - 2021/2/1

N2 - The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and the Earth system may respond to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available for such a diagram and new methodological developments in the study of the interaction between internal and forced variability over a wide range of timescales, we give a positive answer to this question. In addition, we review alternative approaches to the spectral decomposition and pose some challenges for a more detailed quantification of climate variability.

AB - The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and the Earth system may respond to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available for such a diagram and new methodological developments in the study of the interaction between internal and forced variability over a wide range of timescales, we give a positive answer to this question. In addition, we review alternative approaches to the spectral decomposition and pose some challenges for a more detailed quantification of climate variability.

KW - Climate variability

KW - Palaeoclimate

KW - Climate forcing

KW - Climate response

KW - SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE

KW - MIDDLE PLEISTOCENE TRANSITION

KW - EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION

KW - NORTHEAST ATLANTIC-OCEAN

KW - ICE-SHEET

KW - CHANGEPOINT DETECTION

KW - SOLAR VARIABILITY

KW - RECHARGE PARADIGM

KW - TIME-SERIES

KW - EL-NINO

U2 - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103399

DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103399

M3 - Review

VL - 197

JO - Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology - An International Journal for the Geo-Sciences

JF - Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology - An International Journal for the Geo-Sciences

SN - 0031-0182

M1 - 103399

ER -