The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme temperatures over Europe
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The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme temperatures over Europe. / Ozturk, Tugba; Canbaz, Emine; Bilgin, Başak; Matte, Dominic; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg.
In: Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 11, 1178461, 28.06.2023.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The emergence of projected scaled patterns of extreme temperatures over Europe
AU - Ozturk, Tugba
AU - Canbaz, Emine
AU - Bilgin, Başak
AU - Matte, Dominic
AU - Kurnaz, M. Levent
AU - Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg
N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2023 Ozturk, Canbaz, Bilgin, Matte, Kurnaz and Christensen.
PY - 2023/6/28
Y1 - 2023/6/28
N2 - This work investigates the scalability of extreme temperatures over the European domain with global warming levels. We have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional model simulations at 0.11° resolution for daily minimum and maximum temperatures to analyze future changes in extreme weather daily events. Scaling with the annual mean global warming modeled by the driving GCM was applied to future extreme temperature indices changes. Regional changes in each index were scaled by corresponding global warming levels obtained from GCMs. This approach asserts that regional patterns of climate change and average global temperature change are linearly related. It can provide information regarding climate change for periods or emission scenarios when no simulations exist. According to the results, the annual minimum of the lowest temperature of the day (TNn) increases more than the annual maximum of the highest temperature of the day (TXx) for Europe. The multi-model mean of the changes in scaled patterns of extreme temperatures emerges early, around 2020, even before it becomes robust. Individual scaled patterns of TNn and TXx emerge from around 2040.
AB - This work investigates the scalability of extreme temperatures over the European domain with global warming levels. We have used the EURO-CORDEX ensemble of regional model simulations at 0.11° resolution for daily minimum and maximum temperatures to analyze future changes in extreme weather daily events. Scaling with the annual mean global warming modeled by the driving GCM was applied to future extreme temperature indices changes. Regional changes in each index were scaled by corresponding global warming levels obtained from GCMs. This approach asserts that regional patterns of climate change and average global temperature change are linearly related. It can provide information regarding climate change for periods or emission scenarios when no simulations exist. According to the results, the annual minimum of the lowest temperature of the day (TNn) increases more than the annual maximum of the highest temperature of the day (TXx) for Europe. The multi-model mean of the changes in scaled patterns of extreme temperatures emerges early, around 2020, even before it becomes robust. Individual scaled patterns of TNn and TXx emerge from around 2040.
KW - climate change
KW - EURO-CORDEX
KW - extreme temperatures
KW - pattern scaling
KW - regional climate modeling
U2 - 10.3389/feart.2023.1178461
DO - 10.3389/feart.2023.1178461
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85164921124
VL - 11
JO - Frontiers in Earth Science
JF - Frontiers in Earth Science
SN - 2296-6463
M1 - 1178461
ER -
ID: 360680900