TY - JOUR

T1 - Differences in social activity increase efficiency of contact tracing

AU - Nielsen, Bjarke Frost

AU - Sneppen, Kim

AU - Simonsen, Lone

AU - Mathiesen, Joachim

PY - 2021/10/2

Y1 - 2021/10/2

N2 - Digital contact tracing has been suggested as an effective strategy for controlling an epidemic without severely limiting personal mobility. Here, we use smartphone proximity data to explore how social structure affects contact tracing of COVID-19. We model the spread of COVID-19 and find that the effectiveness of contact tracing depends strongly on social network structure and heterogeneous social activity. Contact tracing is shown to be remarkably effective in a workplace environment and the effectiveness depends strongly on the minimum duration of contact required to initiate quarantine. In a realistic social network, we find that forward contact tracing with immediate isolation can reduce an epidemic by more than 70%. In perspective, our findings highlight the necessity of incorporating social heterogeneity into models of mitigation strategies. Graphic abstract

AB - Digital contact tracing has been suggested as an effective strategy for controlling an epidemic without severely limiting personal mobility. Here, we use smartphone proximity data to explore how social structure affects contact tracing of COVID-19. We model the spread of COVID-19 and find that the effectiveness of contact tracing depends strongly on social network structure and heterogeneous social activity. Contact tracing is shown to be remarkably effective in a workplace environment and the effectiveness depends strongly on the minimum duration of contact required to initiate quarantine. In a realistic social network, we find that forward contact tracing with immediate isolation can reduce an epidemic by more than 70%. In perspective, our findings highlight the necessity of incorporating social heterogeneity into models of mitigation strategies. Graphic abstract

KW - NETWORK MODELS

KW - TRANSMISSION

KW - OUTBREAKS

U2 - 10.1140/epjb/s10051-021-00222-8

DO - 10.1140/epjb/s10051-021-00222-8

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34690541

VL - 94

JO - European Physical Journal B. Condensed Matter and Complex Systems

JF - European Physical Journal B. Condensed Matter and Complex Systems

SN - 1434-6028

IS - 10

M1 - 209

ER -