TY - JOUR

T1 - Robustness of future atmospheric circulation changes over the EURO-CORDEX domain

AU - Ozturk, Tugba

AU - Matte, Dominic

AU - Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

PY - 2021/11/25

Y1 - 2021/11/25

N2 - European climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11 degrees grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.

AB - European climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11 degrees grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 degrees C, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.

KW - Atmospheric circulation

KW - Climate change

KW - EURO-CORDEX

KW - Regional climate modeling

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS

KW - CHANGE SIGNALS

KW - CMIP5 MODELS

KW - LAPSE-RATE

KW - PATTERNS

KW - UNCERTAINTIES

KW - SIMULATIONS

KW - VARIABILITY

U2 - 10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0

DO - 10.1007/s00382-021-06069-0

M3 - Journal article

VL - 59

SP - 1799

EP - 1814

JO - Climate Dynamics

JF - Climate Dynamics

SN - 0930-7575

ER -