The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

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The transient sensitivity of sea level rise. / Grinsted, Aslak; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg.

I: Ocean Science, Bind 17, Nr. 1, 02.02.2021, s. 181-186.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelfagfællebedømt

Harvard

Grinsted, A & Christensen, JH 2021, 'The transient sensitivity of sea level rise', Ocean Science, bind 17, nr. 1, s. 181-186. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021

APA

Grinsted, A., & Christensen, J. H. (2021). The transient sensitivity of sea level rise. Ocean Science, 17(1), 181-186. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021

Vancouver

Grinsted A, Christensen JH. The transient sensitivity of sea level rise. Ocean Science. 2021 feb. 2;17(1):181-186. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-181-2021

Author

Grinsted, Aslak ; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg. / The transient sensitivity of sea level rise. I: Ocean Science. 2021 ; Bind 17, Nr. 1. s. 181-186.

Bibtex

@article{4927c54214354b75be50ac23910359a9,
title = "The transient sensitivity of sea level rise",
abstract = "Recent assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) imply that global mean sea level is unlikely to rise more than about 1.1 m within this century but will increase further beyond 2100. Even within the most intensive future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, higher levels are assessed to be unlikely. However, some studies conclude that considerably greater sea level rise could be realized, and a number of experts assign a substantially higher likelihood of such a future. To understand this discrepancy, it would be useful to have scenario-independent metrics that can be compared between different approaches. The concept of a transient climate sensitivity has proven to be useful to compare the global mean temperature response of climate models to specific radiative forcing scenarios. Here, we introduce a similar metric for sea level response. By analyzing the mean rate of change in sea level (not sea level itself), we identify a nearly linear relationship with global mean surface temperature (and therefore accumulated carbon dioxide emissions) both in model projections and in observations on a century scale. This motivates us to define the {"}transient sea level sensitivity{"} as the increase in the sea level rate associated with a given warming in units of meters per century per kelvin. We find that future projections estimated on climate model responses fall below extrapolation based on recent observational records. This comparison suggests that the likely upper level of sea level projections in recent IPCC reports would be too low.",
author = "Aslak Grinsted and Christensen, {Jens Hesselbjerg}",
year = "2021",
month = feb,
day = "2",
doi = "10.5194/os-17-181-2021",
language = "English",
volume = "17",
pages = "181--186",
journal = "Ocean Science",
issn = "1812-0784",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The transient sensitivity of sea level rise

AU - Grinsted, Aslak

AU - Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

PY - 2021/2/2

Y1 - 2021/2/2

N2 - Recent assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) imply that global mean sea level is unlikely to rise more than about 1.1 m within this century but will increase further beyond 2100. Even within the most intensive future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, higher levels are assessed to be unlikely. However, some studies conclude that considerably greater sea level rise could be realized, and a number of experts assign a substantially higher likelihood of such a future. To understand this discrepancy, it would be useful to have scenario-independent metrics that can be compared between different approaches. The concept of a transient climate sensitivity has proven to be useful to compare the global mean temperature response of climate models to specific radiative forcing scenarios. Here, we introduce a similar metric for sea level response. By analyzing the mean rate of change in sea level (not sea level itself), we identify a nearly linear relationship with global mean surface temperature (and therefore accumulated carbon dioxide emissions) both in model projections and in observations on a century scale. This motivates us to define the "transient sea level sensitivity" as the increase in the sea level rate associated with a given warming in units of meters per century per kelvin. We find that future projections estimated on climate model responses fall below extrapolation based on recent observational records. This comparison suggests that the likely upper level of sea level projections in recent IPCC reports would be too low.

AB - Recent assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) imply that global mean sea level is unlikely to rise more than about 1.1 m within this century but will increase further beyond 2100. Even within the most intensive future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission scenarios, higher levels are assessed to be unlikely. However, some studies conclude that considerably greater sea level rise could be realized, and a number of experts assign a substantially higher likelihood of such a future. To understand this discrepancy, it would be useful to have scenario-independent metrics that can be compared between different approaches. The concept of a transient climate sensitivity has proven to be useful to compare the global mean temperature response of climate models to specific radiative forcing scenarios. Here, we introduce a similar metric for sea level response. By analyzing the mean rate of change in sea level (not sea level itself), we identify a nearly linear relationship with global mean surface temperature (and therefore accumulated carbon dioxide emissions) both in model projections and in observations on a century scale. This motivates us to define the "transient sea level sensitivity" as the increase in the sea level rate associated with a given warming in units of meters per century per kelvin. We find that future projections estimated on climate model responses fall below extrapolation based on recent observational records. This comparison suggests that the likely upper level of sea level projections in recent IPCC reports would be too low.

U2 - 10.5194/os-17-181-2021

DO - 10.5194/os-17-181-2021

M3 - Journal article

VL - 17

SP - 181

EP - 186

JO - Ocean Science

JF - Ocean Science

SN - 1812-0784

IS - 1

ER -

ID: 259982309