Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction
Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport › Bidrag til bog/antologi › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction. / Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Willeberg, Preben; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Boklund, Anette; Alkhamis, M.; Perez, A.; Enøe, Claes.
Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. red. / K. L. P. Verheyen; C. Fourichon; SVEPM Committee. Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, 2013. s. 13-22.Publikation: Bidrag til bog/antologi/rapport › Bidrag til bog/antologi › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - CHAP
T1 - Decisions on foot-and-mouth disease control informed by model prediction
AU - Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq
AU - Willeberg, Preben
AU - Christiansen, Lasse Engbo
AU - Boklund, Anette
AU - Alkhamis, M.
AU - Perez, A.
AU - Enøe, Claes
N1 - Oral presentation
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - The predictive capability of the first fortnight incidence (FFI), which is the number of detected herds within the first 14 days following detection of the disease, of the course of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic and its outcomes were investigated. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size, and costs. The first fourteen days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to support the prediction. The epidemic data were obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of the Davis Animal Disease Spread simulation model.The FFI and FFS showed good correlations with the epidemic outcomes. The predictive capability of the FFI was high. This indicates that the FFI may take a part in the decision of whether or not to boost FMD control, which might prevent occurrence of a large epidemic in the face of an FMD incursion. The prediction power was improved by supplementing the models with information on FFS and characteristics of the index-herd. Results presented here will contribute to improve preparedness of Denmark to early control of a hypothetical FMD epidemic.
AB - The predictive capability of the first fortnight incidence (FFI), which is the number of detected herds within the first 14 days following detection of the disease, of the course of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic and its outcomes were investigated. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size, and costs. The first fourteen days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to support the prediction. The epidemic data were obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of the Davis Animal Disease Spread simulation model.The FFI and FFS showed good correlations with the epidemic outcomes. The predictive capability of the FFI was high. This indicates that the FFI may take a part in the decision of whether or not to boost FMD control, which might prevent occurrence of a large epidemic in the face of an FMD incursion. The prediction power was improved by supplementing the models with information on FFS and characteristics of the index-herd. Results presented here will contribute to improve preparedness of Denmark to early control of a hypothetical FMD epidemic.
M3 - Book chapter
SP - 13
EP - 22
BT - Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
A2 - Verheyen, K. L. P.
A2 - Fourichon, C.
A2 - Committee, SVEPM
PB - Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
ER -
ID: 203367397