Inflation Narratives
Publikation: Working paper
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Inflation Narratives. / Andre, Peter; Haaland, Ingar; Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes.
2021.Publikation: Working paper
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TY - UNPB
T1 - Inflation Narratives
AU - Andre, Peter
AU - Haaland, Ingar
AU - Roth, Christopher
AU - Wohlfart, Johannes
PY - 2021/11/25
Y1 - 2021/11/25
N2 - We provide evidence on the stories that people tell to explain a historically notable rise in inflation using samples of experts, U.S. households, and managers. We document substantial heterogeneity in narratives about the drivers of higherinflation rates. Experts put more emphasis on demand-side factors, such as fiscal and monetary policy, and on supply chain disruptions. Other supply-side factors, such as labor shortages or increased energy costs, are equally prominent acrosssamples. Households and managers are more likely to tell generic stories related to the pandemic or mismanagement by the government. We also find that households and managers expect the increase in inflation to be more persistent thanexperts. Moreover, narratives about the drivers of the inflation increase are strongly correlated with beliefs about its persistence. Our findings have implications for understanding macroeconomic expectation formation.
AB - We provide evidence on the stories that people tell to explain a historically notable rise in inflation using samples of experts, U.S. households, and managers. We document substantial heterogeneity in narratives about the drivers of higherinflation rates. Experts put more emphasis on demand-side factors, such as fiscal and monetary policy, and on supply chain disruptions. Other supply-side factors, such as labor shortages or increased energy costs, are equally prominent acrosssamples. Households and managers are more likely to tell generic stories related to the pandemic or mismanagement by the government. We also find that households and managers expect the increase in inflation to be more persistent thanexperts. Moreover, narratives about the drivers of the inflation increase are strongly correlated with beliefs about its persistence. Our findings have implications for understanding macroeconomic expectation formation.
KW - Faculty of Social Sciences
KW - Narratives
KW - Inflation
KW - Beliefs
KW - Macroeconomics
KW - Fiscal policy
KW - monetary policy
M3 - Working paper
T3 - CEBI Working Paper Series
BT - Inflation Narratives
ER -
ID: 287823599