Bachelor defense by Yulii Bardenshtein

Title: The role of wind parameters in Rogue Wave probability predictions.

Abstract: The study of rogue waves is essential to the safety and navigation of naval vessels. Recent findings have discovered a new pathway in understanding the causes of rogue waves; however, the effects of wind have yet to be established. This thesis investigates the impact of wind on rogue wave probabilities. A univariate Bayesian analysis is performed on a combined dataset of wind data from thirteen weather buoys and fifteen Free Ocean Water Dataset buoys. The results from the analysis indicate that wind parameters are poor predictors of rogue wave probabilities. However, the results suggest that the most critical wind parameter, namely inverse wave age, mainly influences the rogue wave probabilities due to its correlation with steepness. Another important finding from the analysis is the insignificant effect of the angular component of wind parameters, suggesting that the creation of rogue waves is independent of the increase or decrease of wave energy by wind. 
The analysis of rogue crests reveals that wind parameters are good predictors of rogue crest probabilities. Inverse wave age is found to be the most critical wind parameter, with a lower bound predictive power of 0.56. The wind is found to cause rogue crests independently of steepness, revealing a direct pathway for wind-wave interactions. Wind parameters, especially inverse wave age, will need to be appreciated in further studies and forecasting algorithms regarding rogue waves.

Supervisor: Markus Jochum

Censor: Søren Larsen (DTU)