Master Thesis Defense by Mette Høj Lauridsen

Title:  Summer 2018 - A storyline approach to communicating future extreme heat events

Abstract:
This paper explores the possibility of using the extreme warm summer of 2018 in Denmark as a storyline to communicate consequences on future summer heat extremes due to global warming. It seeks to answer the questions on how extreme 2018 actually was in a historical and statistical perspective, while also exploring how a storyline approach is communicated effectively to the target reader, the municipalities. Extreme heat is an accelerating issue due to global warming. In the European heat wave in 2003 a great number of people lost their lives due to extreme heat. In the Danish warmwave in 2018 from July 10th till August 9th, an excess death rate of 250 people was registered in Denmark (Beredskabsstyrelsen, 2022). Rising temperatures is a matter of life and death.

The storyline is based on the summer 2018 due to the sub-conclusion that 2018 was a distinctive and extreme event in relation to observational temperatures from Landbohøjskolens Have, Frederiksberg, dating from 1874-2023. The storyline approach humanizes the consequences of the extreme heat using relatability to actual consequences of 2018. It deals with consequences among various sectors, such as healthcare, energy sectors, agriculture, and consequences for nature. Presenting 2018 as baseline for future extreme heat seeks to make the consequences of extreme heat tangible for policymakers and the wider public.

The product of this paper is a website where municipalities can seek information. The intention is to include the website on Klimaatlas when mature. The website should, however, not be seen as a definitive product, as it is merely a tool to foster dialogues and two-way communication between municipalities and DMI.
The goal of the website is to deliver trustworthy and comprehensible information based on scientific data. The data is made accessible using infographics, visuals, and easy-red text with inspiration from Schwabish (2021) and other relevant communication scholars. The paper is, however, not a comprehensive analysis of communication between municipalities and DMI. As for now, the website is still under construction, as more tailoring needs to be done.

In summary, this paper holds an approach to combine scientific research with relatable narratives for municipalities through storyline approaches. The aim is to strengthen the mandate for municipalities in policymaking through a combination of scientific analysis, communication, and suggested recommendations.
The storyline approach is well received by Københavns Kommune and Frederiksberg Kommune (Personal communication, 2023), and delivers the building blocks for development of more storyline approaches with other climatic variables as focal points.

Supervisor: Jens Hesslebjerg Christensen
Censor: Martin Drews, DTU