Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial
Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Documents
- 2019JF005237
Final published version, 5.57 MB, PDF document
The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope-enabled climate model outputs to investigate the problem. Exploring the space of possible ice sheet geometries by simulation is prohibitively expensive. We address this problem by using a Gaussian process emulator as a statistical surrogate of the full climate model. The emulator is calibrated using the results of a small number of carefully chosen simulations and then permits fast, probabilistic predictions of the simulator outputs at untried inputs. The inputs are GIS morphologies, parameterized through a dimension-reduction technique adapted to the spherical geometry of the setting. Based on the emulator predictions, the characteristics of morphologies compatible with the available ice core measurements are explored, leading to a reduction in uncertainty on the LIG GIS morphology. Moreover, a scenario-based approach allows to assess the gains in uncertainty reduction which would result from the availability of better dated LIG measurements in Greenland ice cores.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Article number | e2019JF005237 |
Journal | Journal of Geophysical Research, Part F: Earth Surface |
Volume | 125 |
Issue number | 5 |
Number of pages | 19 |
ISSN | 2169-8953 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 May 2020 |
- Gaussian process emulation, Greenland Ice Sheet, Last Interglacial, SEA-LEVEL RISE, ANTARCTIC ICE, GLACIAL MAXIMUM, AIR CONTENT, CHRONOLOGY AICC2012, OXYGEN-ISOTOPE, COUPLED MODEL, CLIMATE, SIMULATIONS, CONSTRAINTS
Research areas
ID: 247168554