Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe
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Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe. / García-León, David; Casanueva, Ana; Standardi, Gabriele; Burgstall, Annkatrin; Flouris, Andreas D; Nybo, Lars.
In: Nature Communications, Vol. 12, 5807, 2021.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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T1 - Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe
AU - García-León, David
AU - Casanueva, Ana
AU - Standardi, Gabriele
AU - Burgstall, Annkatrin
AU - Flouris, Andreas D
AU - Nybo, Lars
N1 - © 2021. The Author(s).
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse the present and future economic damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, we focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared our findings to the historical period 1981-2010. In the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3-0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981-2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute.
AB - Extreme heat undermines the working capacity of individuals, resulting in lower productivity, and thus economic output. Here we analyse the present and future economic damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, we focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared our findings to the historical period 1981-2010. In the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3-0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981-2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute.
KW - Faculty of Science
KW - Extreme heat
KW - Heat stress
KW - Impact
KW - Working capacity
KW - Productivity
KW - Economic output
KW - Europe
KW - Climate change
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z
DO - 10.1038/s41467-021-26050-z
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 34608159
VL - 12
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
SN - 2041-1723
M1 - 5807
ER -
ID: 281218614