On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event

Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › Research › peer-review

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On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event. / Matte, Dominic; Christensen, Jens H.; Feddersen, Henrik; Vedel, Henrik; Nielsen, Niels Woetmann; Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Zeitzen, Rune M. K.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, No. 16, e2022GL099481, 28.08.2022.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Matte, D, Christensen, JH, Feddersen, H, Vedel, H, Nielsen, NW, Pedersen, RA & Zeitzen, RMK 2022, 'On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 49, no. 16, e2022GL099481. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099481

APA

Matte, D., Christensen, J. H., Feddersen, H., Vedel, H., Nielsen, N. W., Pedersen, R. A., & Zeitzen, R. M. K. (2022). On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(16), [e2022GL099481]. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099481

Vancouver

Matte D, Christensen JH, Feddersen H, Vedel H, Nielsen NW, Pedersen RA et al. On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event. Geophysical Research Letters. 2022 Aug 28;49(16). e2022GL099481. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099481

Author

Matte, Dominic ; Christensen, Jens H. ; Feddersen, Henrik ; Vedel, Henrik ; Nielsen, Niels Woetmann ; Pedersen, Rasmus A. ; Zeitzen, Rune M. K. / On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2022 ; Vol. 49, No. 16.

Bibtex

@article{bad0d25e421a448892183b885f9d17f0,
title = "On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event",
abstract = "Intense convective storms can be hazardous when occurring over large populated cities. In a changing climate, decision makers and the general public increasingly need to be able to better understand if and to what extent these storms are influenced by anthropological climate change and what to expect as climate continues to warm. Unfortunately due to their limited ability to resolve small-scale features in models, convective storms remain a challenge to the modeling community. Here, we use a forecast-ensemble based method using a convection permitting model with full data-assimilation, to assess the risk of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds related to a critical cloudburst event that occurred over Copenhagen, Denmark. Our results show that this set-up is representing well the overall observed intensities. By adapting a pseudo-global warming approach, we show that both the risk for flooding and the risk for reaching unprecedented precipitation intensity increases resulting from further warming.",
keywords = "climate change, clouburst, attribution, pseudo-global warming, flash flood, PRECIPITATION, FORMULATION, ENSEMBLE, WEATHER, SCHEME, END",
author = "Dominic Matte and Christensen, {Jens H.} and Henrik Feddersen and Henrik Vedel and Nielsen, {Niels Woetmann} and Pedersen, {Rasmus A.} and Zeitzen, {Rune M. K.}",
year = "2022",
month = aug,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2022GL099481",
language = "English",
volume = "49",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters (Online)",
issn = "1944-8007",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "16",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - On the Potentials and Limitations of Attributing a Small-Scale Climate Event

AU - Matte, Dominic

AU - Christensen, Jens H.

AU - Feddersen, Henrik

AU - Vedel, Henrik

AU - Nielsen, Niels Woetmann

AU - Pedersen, Rasmus A.

AU - Zeitzen, Rune M. K.

PY - 2022/8/28

Y1 - 2022/8/28

N2 - Intense convective storms can be hazardous when occurring over large populated cities. In a changing climate, decision makers and the general public increasingly need to be able to better understand if and to what extent these storms are influenced by anthropological climate change and what to expect as climate continues to warm. Unfortunately due to their limited ability to resolve small-scale features in models, convective storms remain a challenge to the modeling community. Here, we use a forecast-ensemble based method using a convection permitting model with full data-assimilation, to assess the risk of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds related to a critical cloudburst event that occurred over Copenhagen, Denmark. Our results show that this set-up is representing well the overall observed intensities. By adapting a pseudo-global warming approach, we show that both the risk for flooding and the risk for reaching unprecedented precipitation intensity increases resulting from further warming.

AB - Intense convective storms can be hazardous when occurring over large populated cities. In a changing climate, decision makers and the general public increasingly need to be able to better understand if and to what extent these storms are influenced by anthropological climate change and what to expect as climate continues to warm. Unfortunately due to their limited ability to resolve small-scale features in models, convective storms remain a challenge to the modeling community. Here, we use a forecast-ensemble based method using a convection permitting model with full data-assimilation, to assess the risk of exceeding certain precipitation thresholds related to a critical cloudburst event that occurred over Copenhagen, Denmark. Our results show that this set-up is representing well the overall observed intensities. By adapting a pseudo-global warming approach, we show that both the risk for flooding and the risk for reaching unprecedented precipitation intensity increases resulting from further warming.

KW - climate change

KW - clouburst

KW - attribution

KW - pseudo-global warming

KW - flash flood

KW - PRECIPITATION

KW - FORMULATION

KW - ENSEMBLE

KW - WEATHER

KW - SCHEME

KW - END

U2 - 10.1029/2022GL099481

DO - 10.1029/2022GL099481

M3 - Letter

VL - 49

JO - Geophysical Research Letters (Online)

JF - Geophysical Research Letters (Online)

SN - 1944-8007

IS - 16

M1 - e2022GL099481

ER -

ID: 317934947