The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

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The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation. / Bochow, Nils; Boers, Niklas.

In: Science Advances, Vol. 9, No. 40, eadd9973, 2023.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Bochow, N & Boers, N 2023, 'The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation', Science Advances, vol. 9, no. 40, eadd9973. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add9973

APA

Bochow, N., & Boers, N. (2023). The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation. Science Advances, 9(40), [eadd9973]. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add9973

Vancouver

Bochow N, Boers N. The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation. Science Advances. 2023;9(40). eadd9973. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add9973

Author

Bochow, Nils ; Boers, Niklas. / The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation. In: Science Advances. 2023 ; Vol. 9, No. 40.

Bibtex

@article{230cd8eb1762444aa4e8cecc54f263e8,
title = "The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation",
abstract = "The Amazon rainforest is threatened by land-use change and increasing drought and fire frequency. Studies suggest an abrupt dieback of large parts of the rainforest after partial forest loss, but the critical threshold, underlying mechanisms, and possible impacts of forest degradation on the monsoon circulation remain uncertain. Here, we use a nonlinear dynamical model of the moisture transport and recycling across the Amazon to identify several precursor signals for a critical transition in the coupled atmosphere-vegetation dynamics. Guided by our simulations, we reveal both statistical and physical precursor signals of an approaching critical transition in reanalysis and observational data. In accordance with our model results, we attribute these characteristic precursor signals to the nearing of a critical transition of the coupled Amazon atmosphere-vegetation system induced by forest loss due to deforestation, droughts, and fires. The transition would lead to substantially drier conditions, under which the rainforest could likely not be maintained.",
author = "Nils Bochow and Niklas Boers",
note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved.",
year = "2023",
doi = "10.1126/sciadv.add9973",
language = "English",
volume = "9",
journal = "Science advances",
issn = "2375-2548",
publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",
number = "40",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

AU - Bochow, Nils

AU - Boers, Niklas

N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - The Amazon rainforest is threatened by land-use change and increasing drought and fire frequency. Studies suggest an abrupt dieback of large parts of the rainforest after partial forest loss, but the critical threshold, underlying mechanisms, and possible impacts of forest degradation on the monsoon circulation remain uncertain. Here, we use a nonlinear dynamical model of the moisture transport and recycling across the Amazon to identify several precursor signals for a critical transition in the coupled atmosphere-vegetation dynamics. Guided by our simulations, we reveal both statistical and physical precursor signals of an approaching critical transition in reanalysis and observational data. In accordance with our model results, we attribute these characteristic precursor signals to the nearing of a critical transition of the coupled Amazon atmosphere-vegetation system induced by forest loss due to deforestation, droughts, and fires. The transition would lead to substantially drier conditions, under which the rainforest could likely not be maintained.

AB - The Amazon rainforest is threatened by land-use change and increasing drought and fire frequency. Studies suggest an abrupt dieback of large parts of the rainforest after partial forest loss, but the critical threshold, underlying mechanisms, and possible impacts of forest degradation on the monsoon circulation remain uncertain. Here, we use a nonlinear dynamical model of the moisture transport and recycling across the Amazon to identify several precursor signals for a critical transition in the coupled atmosphere-vegetation dynamics. Guided by our simulations, we reveal both statistical and physical precursor signals of an approaching critical transition in reanalysis and observational data. In accordance with our model results, we attribute these characteristic precursor signals to the nearing of a critical transition of the coupled Amazon atmosphere-vegetation system induced by forest loss due to deforestation, droughts, and fires. The transition would lead to substantially drier conditions, under which the rainforest could likely not be maintained.

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.add9973

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.add9973

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 37792950

AN - SCOPUS:85173140125

VL - 9

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

SN - 2375-2548

IS - 40

M1 - eadd9973

ER -

ID: 389959386