Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Standard

Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories. / Kirkegaard, Julius B.; Sneppen, Kim.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 11, No. 1, 24124, 16.12.2021.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Kirkegaard, JB & Sneppen, K 2021, 'Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories', Scientific Reports, vol. 11, no. 1, 24124. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w

APA

Kirkegaard, J. B., & Sneppen, K. (2021). Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories. Scientific Reports, 11(1), [24124]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w

Vancouver

Kirkegaard JB, Sneppen K. Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories. Scientific Reports. 2021 Dec 16;11(1). 24124. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w

Author

Kirkegaard, Julius B. ; Sneppen, Kim. / Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories. In: Scientific Reports. 2021 ; Vol. 11, No. 1.

Bibtex

@article{244416d93e124980b4980140f4e6a020,
title = "Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories",
abstract = "The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.",
keywords = "DISEASE",
author = "Kirkegaard, {Julius B.} and Kim Sneppen",
year = "2021",
month = dec,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
journal = "Scientific Reports",
issn = "2045-2322",
publisher = "nature publishing group",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories

AU - Kirkegaard, Julius B.

AU - Sneppen, Kim

PY - 2021/12/16

Y1 - 2021/12/16

N2 - The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.

AB - The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.

KW - DISEASE

U2 - 10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w

DO - 10.1038/s41598-021-03126-w

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34916534

VL - 11

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

SN - 2045-2322

IS - 1

M1 - 24124

ER -

ID: 289233634